Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Connecting Michigan to South Carolina (Re: Fred Thompson)

I found this article in National Review Online. While the subject does not match the title of my post, I will post my own take on it.

  • Tuesday, January 08, 2008
  • Meanwhile, In South Carolina...
  • I've got a couple of items to update about South Carolina.
  • First, Rasmussen puts the former Arkansas governor up big: Mike Huckabee 28, John McCain 21, Mitt Romney 15, Fred Thompson 11.
  • Second, after chatting with one of the Thompson Associates, I hear Thompson is going to announce a move that says he's all in at this point. (Or doubling down; pick whether you prefer poker or blackjack metaphors.) The bottom line is, Thompson and the people around him know that South Carolina is a must-win. Mitt Romney may look very damaged by the time South Carolina votes, however, and Team Fred thinks they're a likely first choice for Romney fans losing faith in their man. (Would Mitt fans go to "Don't Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers" Huckabee or "You are the candidate of change" McCain?)
Ya gotta realize that even though this currently doesn't look good for Thompson in South Carolina, it is still a couple weeks from now. This all hangs on what happens in Michigan and what happens with Romney here. The way I see it, Romney supporters are most likely to switch to Thompson. Of the three ahead of Thompson in South Carolina, Mitt Romney seems the most conservative, at least by what he says. So if they are with Romney due to his recent conservative conversion, Thompson will be the most likely for them to turn to since he is fully conservative.
  • Also, expect Thompson to spend an enormous amount of time laying out all the ways that Huckabee is not an across-the-board conservative. Thompson's people believe the ball is bouncing his way, as he'll soon be able to make the case he's the only remaining candidate who can rally all wings of the Republican coalition.
  • At the First Monday club, a group of Hilton Head Island Republicans who have been kind enough to invite me to speak in the past, about ten folks said they had found their candidate, but four to five times that number said they were still undecided. No straw polls were taken, as First Monday organizers didn't want to see blood on the floor.
  • UPDATE: "Thompson is going to announce a move that says he's all in at this point." Here's the move:
Click here to read what that move is and the full story.

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